Autonomous Vehicles are Stepping Up a Gear

A comprehensive transformation is foreseen for the automotive industry in the next 5 to 10 years. According to experts, approximately 8 million autonomous or semi-autonomous vehicles will be seen on the roads by 2025. Being tested for many years, autonomous vehicles have made significant progress in their development journey, including digital technologies and artificial intelligence. So, how will the future projection be in the autonomous vehicle market which is stepping up a gear?

Since the invention of the wheel, the place of lateral transportation in the history of the world has always been very important. Since many factors such as geographical discoveries, wars, conquests, migrations and the development of trade from past to present increased the need for transportation, it also played a triggering role in its development. The Industrial Revolution and the introduction of steam engines marked the beginning of a breakdown in all transportation systems. Today, when we look at the world of the 20th century through a lens, we witness that transportation systems have reached a completely different dimension.

Today, studies are carried out in Turkey and the world in line with objectives such as improving infrastructure in all modes of transportation, increasing service quality and contributing to the realization of climate-neutral goals by eliminating negative effects on the environment. Today, the industry has come a long way with electric and autonomous vehicles, as well as e-mobility, flying cars, and drones. According to the report prepared by KPMG as a result of the survey conducted in 2021, more than 1,100 managers in 31 countries anticipate a comprehensive transformation in the industry in the next 5 to 10 years. And there is no slowdown or stop in this conversion rate, the conversion continues at a rapid pace. In fact, in the development journey that includes digital technologies and artificial intelligence, autonomous vehicles that are expected to shape the driving experience of the future have stepped up a gear.

A Brief Look from Past to Present

Autonomous technology, which is already being used in daily travel and transportation, carries important clues about the automotive projection of the future. Autonomous is used for a vehicle that is supported by artificial intelligence and some algorithms, requires little intervention with its detection capabilities, or can operate on its own without a driver. Some of today’s examples of these vehicles still require humans to monitor the road, while others have human intervention completely disabled. At this point, of course, only the high-tech equipment of the vehicle is not enough. Factors such as smart infrastructure, 5G, and electric charging stations play an important role in driving an autonomous vehicle with the best performance.

According to experts, we will see about 8 million autonomous or semi-autonomous vehicles on the roads by 2025. But before they can enter highways, self-driving cars must first go through six levels of driver assistance technology. Because the vehicles on the market today have different levels of autonomy according to their features. SAE-Society of Automotive Engineers International has also made a classification that defines six levels of driving, from level 0 to level 5, according to autonomous driving levels. Level 0 autonomous vehicles require human intervention even though they have technically sufficient systems, while Level 5 autonomous vehicles are suitable for completely unmanned operations. Level 5 vehicles have not been put into use on the roads yet, the test phases are continuing. However, Peugeot and Volkswagen continue to introduce autonomous vehicles with Level 4 driving systems.

Factors such as smart infrastructure, 5G, and electric charging stations play an important role in driving an autonomous vehicle with the best performance.

It Has Become the Industry’s Favorite

Turkey, which is among the countries that take early action by rapidly adopting the era of Industry 4.0 in the industry, shows great interest in autonomous vehicles within the scope of industrial digital transformation. When we look at the investments made in the industry in recent years, it is seen that industrialists have a positive approach to this issue, especially after the effect of the pandemic. Especially with the effect of the pandemic, it has been seen more clearly how important unmanned operations are especially for the production sector. While 10 autonomous vehicles were preferred against 500 manual industrial transport vehicles in 2019, this rate has come to the point where 70 autonomous vehicles are preferred over 300 manual industrial transport vehicles. According to market research, by 2028, the preference for autonomous vehicle use will compete with the preference for manual vehicles in many sectors such as warehousing logistics, manufacturing, food, iron-steel, durable consumer goods, and sub-industry. It is predicted that until 2040, manual vehicles will only be used in open field works depending on geographical and field conditions.

The Issue of “Autonomous Trucks” in Transportation

Autonomous trucks are one of the most exciting autonomous prospects in 2021 and 2022. When the test work of autonomous trucks working with radars, laser scanners, cameras, and GPS antennas communicating with the pilot software yielded positive results, the construction of a logistics center for autonomous transportation began in Texas, USA. One of the most important developments in the industry took place in December 2021. One of the autonomous trucking company TuSimple’s vehicles completed an 80-mile journey across Arizona with an empty cabin and zero human intervention.

The reason why this issue creates so much excitement, in general, is the prediction that there will be a great need for drivers in the future. There is a known serious driver shortage, especially in the USA, Europe, and China. The aging of the driver population and the rapid growth in e-commerce increase the need for transportation is cited as the triggers of this deficit. Another reason why autonomous trucks are followed with interest is the idea that they will provide a significant increase in efficiency. Daily driving times in transportation, create a disadvantage as journeys take a few days to complete. Autonomous vehicles, on the other hand, have the potential to halve the delivery time for journeys over a certain distance. Despite all its advantages, autonomous trucks still do not hold a firm position in freight transport due to uncertainties. However, companies such as Waymo, Embark, Houston, San Antonio, and Aurora continue to work steadily in this field, which they see as the future.

Which is the Future, Autonomous or Electric Vehicles?

It is predicted that one out of every two cars in the world will be an electric vehicle by 2030. The Turkish automotive industry is also taking steps that show that it is ready for electrification. Introducing TOGG, the first domestic automobile venture, to the world within the scope of its electric vehicle projection, Turkey will start selling the vehicle in the first quarter of 2023.

According to KPMG’s “Global Automotive Executives Survey 2021”, new and exciting vehicles introduced to the market and the transformation towards electric vehicles, which are expected to accelerate even more, are among the big trends. If the scenario as predicted occurs, it is expected that electric vehicle costs will approach the cost of internal combustion vehicles by the end of 2030. The executives expect that by this date, half of the automobile market in Japan, China, the USA, and Europe will consist of electric vehicles.

While research shows that electric vehicles can be widely adopted without government subsidies, the majority still support such programs. Surveys also reveal that the spread of electric vehicles around the world will depend on investments in fast-charging infrastructure. Accordingly, while 77 percent of executives state that consumers expect charging times under 30 minutes while traveling, the time spent in the vast majority of charging stations serving today takes more than three hours.

Agenda: Autonomous Vehicle License

Although there has been a short pause in the autonomous vehicle market with COVID-19, the excitement of the brands in this area has not faded. The recent increase in the use of taxi and car-sharing services seems to ensure that autonomous vehicles become widespread in these areas. However, driverless vehicles equipped with artificial intelligence and high reliability must be subject to certain rules, even though they have a low-risk ratio. Currently, European and North American countries such as the USA, Germany, England, and the Netherlands stand out with their pioneering studies on driverless vehicle licenses. These countries are already working on regulations and test permits for self-driving vehicles on public roads. But it is necessary to set the USA apart from other countries because the country is a leader in the integration of driverless car technology. Regulations for testing autonomous vehicles in the state of California went into effect in September 2014. A driverless vehicle-friendly test environment was developed and a new regulation was introduced in the state of Arizona in 2018, allowing driverless vehicles to be used on highways.